Global technology spending is heading into 2026 with a confidence that feels earned rather than speculative, as Forrester projects worldwide tech outlays to grow by 7.8 percent year over year, reaching roughly $5.6 trillion compared to $5.2 trillion in 2025. That pace holds even as US tariffs continue to distort trade flows and cost structures, which is notable in itself. According to Forrester’s Global Tech Market Forecast covering 2025 through 2030, most economies are expected to maintain growth trajectories similar to last year, suggesting that technology investment has become structurally embedded in both corporate and government planning. The underlying driver is no mystery: artificial intelligence has shifted from an experimental line item into core infrastructure across defense, finance, healthcare, industrial systems, and retail, and once that switch flips, spending tends to compound rather than retreat.
Regionally, the momentum shows clear variations in scale but not in direction. North America is set to post the fastest growth, with technology spend projected to rise by 9 percent to about $2.28 trillion, reflecting the concentration of hyperscale cloud providers, AI model developers, and enterprise software buyers. Asia Pacific follows closely, with a projected 7.9 percent increase pushing tech spend to around $1.1 trillion, while Europe is expected to grow at a steadier 6.3 percent, reaching approximately $1.75 trillion. What stands out here is not just the absolute numbers but the composition of that growth. Forrester expects more than 70 percent of the incremental tech spending between 2025 and 2030 to come from enterprise and government investment in computer equipment and software, a signal that AI deployment is moving deeper into operational systems rather than remaining confined to pilot programs or innovation labs.
National strategies and regional priorities continue to shape how that money is allocated. The United States remains dominant in AI research, with investment exceeding $109 billion, yet tariffs are still weighing on both the domestic economy and export-reliant European markets. In response, other major economies are accelerating their own initiatives. China has raised its AI spending target to $98 billion in 2025, India is pushing hard on AI-enabled cloud adoption while expanding global capability centers that are expected to drive double-digit IT spend growth in 2026, and Germany is positioned for faster-than-average growth in part due to an expanding information and communication technology workforce. The pattern feels less like a single global race and more like several parallel sprints, each shaped by local policy, labor markets, and industrial strengths.
At the industry level, the flow of capital is following pressure points. Defense, financial services, healthcare, industrial manufacturing, and retail are emerging as the most aggressive AI investors, largely because these sectors face high complexity, rising costs, and intense competition. Even in a softer macroeconomic environment, banks and insurance companies are expected to sustain robust technology spending in 2026, with cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, and AI sitting at the top of the list. Healthcare, meanwhile, is seeing growth across data storage, security hardware, cloud security, AI literacy training, and data governance, all of which are prerequisites for scaling AI responsibly in clinical and operational settings. It’s less about flashy use cases and more about building the plumbing that allows automation and analytics to function safely at scale.
The fastest growth, however, is expected in computer equipment and software, where the numbers start to feel almost aggressive. Computer equipment spending alone is forecast to grow by 16.8 percent in 2026, driven primarily by demand for AI servers. By 2030, AI-specialized machines, including these servers, are expected to account for more than 80 percent of total computer equipment spending, a dramatic jump from just 43 percent in 2024. On the software side, cloud and AI-related segments are projected to grow at roughly twice the rate of the overall software market, which itself is expected to expand by 11.5 percent this year. The implication is clear: general-purpose IT is giving way to purpose-built systems optimized for data-intensive, model-driven workloads.
Summing up the outlook, Michael O’Grady, principal forecast analyst at Forrester, frames the moment as one of resilience rather than exuberance. As Michael O’Grady notes, even amid global economic volatility, technology spending continues to climb, fueled by sustained AI adoption across core industries. The caveat, and it’s an important one, is that organizations will need to be selective and disciplined. Managing the combined pressures of tariffs, trade tensions, and rapid AI investment means prioritizing initiatives that deliver measurable productivity gains while also cultivating AI-capable talent internally. Otherwise, the spending surge risks turning into technical debt dressed up as innovation, and nobody really wants that, even if the headline numbers look great.
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